UFC 104 Analysis

UFC 104 is live this Saturday night and here my friends is my first stab at pre card analysis. Before we jump into the fight, Just a few notes about the card:

• This is the second time UFC has come to the Staple Centre in California, USA; the first time was UFC 60, May, 2006 when Matt Hughes defeated Royce Gracie by arm bar.
• Cain velasquez was originally slated to fight fellow up and coming giant Shane Carwin for this event, why the match up was changed is subject to speculation but the result is that Carwin will face Lesnar for the heavyweight strap and Cain Velasquez will welcome a long over due Rothwell to the UFC fold.
• Ben Rothwell was originally slated to face Stephan Struve at the Affliction ‘Trilogy’ show; after the show did its best impression of the Titanic, both fighters were snapped up by the UFC and Struve will also make his octagon debut this event against Chase gormley.
• Lyoto will be looking for his eighth consecutive win in the UFC but only his first defence of the title.
• Lyoto machida is one of only two undefeated top 10 light-heavyweights (the other being Louis Arthur Cane) and one of only four undefeated world champions (The other three being Brian Bowles, Jussier De Silva as a linear champion without the belt and Fedor Emelianenko’s DQ loss )



I’m going to work my way up the card from the prelims to the main event, don’t worry i won’t make a meal of the early bouts:


Stefan Struve (17-3) Vs. Chase Gormley (6-0)
Stefan Struve is best remembered for bloodying up the mat during the prelims of UFC 99 and giving the hostile German press something to shake a finger at. Struve showed tremendous heart and surprising veteranship by wading through the fight, absorbing a lot of damage and submitting Denis Stojnic with only a quarter of his blood still coursing through his veins.

Gormley is an up and coming heavyweight with no losses on his record, not surprising as he’s yet to fight top 10-20 competition.

The fight is most likely Gormleys to lose, whose superior size and strength should give him the advantage over the lanky Struve who showed a weak chin against Junior Dos Santos in UFC 95.
BOTTOM LINE: Gormley by KO or ground and pound


Kyle Kingsbury Vs. Razak Al-Hassan
BOTTOM LINE: Who cares (told you I’d be brief… in truth I’ll care a lot more after the fight, neither man is in title contention any time soon)


Jorge Rivera Vs. Rob Kimmons
Jorge Rivera continues to fight into the twilight of his career, an awe inspiring fist rape of kendell Grove continues to bring him to the minds of fans and he’ll continue to serve as a solid gate keeper until the end of his career.

Kimmons is being moved to the big show after two fight nights and a TUF finale (albeit the prelims), he’s a solid Jiu-Jitsu black belt and Rivera has always displayed a lack of submission defence.
BOTTOM LINE: Kimmons by choke


Yushin Okami Vs. Chael Sonnen
It’s possible Okami will never get a title shot. He’s been a contender on the rim for what feels like an eternity now and recent injuries and Anderson Silva dabbling with the 205lbs division might leave him forever on the outside looking in. Throw in the fact that Henderson and Marquart are both arguing over why they should get the ambulance ride ahead of Belfort and Joe Rogan and virtually every MMA journalist pestering the champ with questions of super fights against GSP and Machida, oh, and he also wants to fight Mir at heavyweight.

With all these names ahead of him, it could be a while before Okami finds himself top of the line again and in that time he could easily pick up a loss, completely scuppering those plans completely. However, if he wins this prelim in exciting fashion he could boost himself to a contender match for first dibs after the Henderson/marquardt issue is resolved. Enter Chael Sonnen:

Sonnen, the man who took the WEC middleweight belt from a hallucinating Paulo Filho who found himself in a five round nervous breakdown that all but ruined his career (god that was awkward viewing), is, kind of boring. Don’t get me wrong he’s a brilliantly crafty fighter, however he doesn’t put on the kind of blood and guts shows that make headline fights and push people into title shots and neither does Machida.

This is probably the most contentious fight on the card, it really comes down to who can take top position and grind out a three round decision; unless of course one of them decides to give the UFC brass what they want and kick off round one with a running-flying-armbar. I expect okami to have the better positional skills and to be able to maintain dominant positions for most the fight.
BOTTOM LINE: Okami by decision


Antoni Hardonk Vs. Pat Barry
I have a problem with this kind of fight. Both these men are excellent kickboxers with as much ground skills as 6 of the 8 original fighters of UFC 1 (guess which 6); this is a clear attempt to try and create a stand up striking war without changing the rules to Thai Boxing or kick boxing. I’m ok with matching fights by style, absolutely fine, however: it almost never works. One of the strikers awaits tries to mix it up with wrestling, clinch work and ground and pound (see Kongo Vs Cro Cop, Herring Vs Kongo, Hardonk Vs Kongo… wait I’m seeing a pattern here!) Who can blame them, one dimensional fighters are always keen to show off their new skills and demonstrate their versatility, much like a type cast actor trying to break out of a soap opera.

Expect a lot of banging until someone realises their disadvantage and shoots for a weak single leg and tries to grind out a win from the top.
BOTTOM LINE: Hardonk by ground and pound


Ryan Bader Vs. Eric Schafer
BOTTOM LINE: Bader wins


Anthony Johnson Vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
Anthony Johnson would be 5-1 in his UFC run were it not to a clear DQ win becomming a TKO loss being dropped in appeal due to lack of remedy (I’ve got a remedy, over rule the decision). Johnson is incredibly athletic, much more so the Yoshida whose hoping to dodge the superior striking of the American and bring the fight to the ground, be warned though, I believe Johnson’s ground game is very underrated.
BOTTOM LINE: Johnson by stoppage


Joe Stevenson Vs. Spencer Fisher
Joe Stevenson is having a hard time finding a place in the lightweight division. He began his UFC run with a 6-1 record before being beaten like a drunkards wife by BJ Penn for the vacated title. Since that loss he’s gone 2-2 with both wins over mid tier competition and both losses coming from legitimate contenders.

His biggest problem is that his wrestling is good but not the best, his striking is good but not the best, his Jiu-Jitsu is good… you get the idea. Don’t get me wrong, he’s got brilliant submission skills but against BJ Penn and Florian he couldn’t muster much offence. Stevenson suffers from being very well rounded but not seemingly refusing to not fight into his opponents strengths, that and it’s clear he’s not a top tier lightweight, so the question is, what does one do with Joe ‘Daddy’ Stevenson?

This is where Spencer ‘King’ Fisher comes in. Fisher is coming off a win over veteran fighter Caol Uno and has shown a tendency to only lose against superior strikers. A win for Fisher could line him up to fight the likes of Maynard in the near future for a title eliminator. Losing keeps him safely in the mid tier but neither fighter has any desire to stay there.

Stevenson needs this win, expect a back to basics approach with added aggression as he takes ‘king’ Fisher down and controls the fight to a late stoppage.
BOTTOM LINE: Stevenson by stoppage


Gleison Tibau Vs. Josh Neer
Gleison Tibau has gone 5-3 in his UFC career that stretches back three years now. He’s a fighter that always puts on a solid performance, has great grappling skills and can go the distance three hard rounds. He is, however, not about to challenge BJ Penn anytime in the near future.

Josh Neer is also coming off a decision loss, he’s better than Tibau in most ways and will most likely keep the fight on the feet until he’s forced to do otherwise. If Neer can stay standing it should be a decision win for him, I Tibau can bring it to the ground and keep it their then he can catch Neer.
BOTTOM LINE: Neer by decision


Cain Velasquez Vs. Ben Rothwell
This is a very important fight. It seems like only yesterday that this was destined to be a title eliminator between Carwin and Velaquez, now of course, Carwin finds himself with the first shot and Cain can’t be too far behind. Both Cain and Shane have long been heralded as the UFC’s best kept secrets and weapons of the heavyweight division and both men should get the chance to prove themselves very soon.

Ben Rothwell, of IFL fame, Has long sought respect as a top ten heavyweight in the sport but seldom found it due to sub standard competition. His most notable win was a split decision over Roy Nelson and his most notable opponent was Andre Arlovski who used his face as a speed bag last year. Rothwell hasn’t fought so far in 2009 and claims to have made massive improvements. Cain Velsquez is being heralded as the best fighter to come out of ATT (no mean feat).

Some fans question Velasquez’s chin after being dropped by Kongo in his last fight. I don’t think there’s much shame being dropped by possibly the best striker in the division, especially when you show a serious ability to recover and fight through the haze. More questionable surely was his inability to finish, despite a ferocious ground and pound that must have consisted of over a hundred punches to the head (just checked compustrike, it was 176), he failed to put Kongo away.

The fight goes like this: neither man will be afraid to stand and trade, Cain is a far superior wrestler. Good fight, expect Cain to fce the winner of Carwin Vs. Lesnar or alternatively Minotauro in a title eliminator.
BOTTOM LINE: Velasquez by decision


Lyoto Machida Vs. Mauricio Rua
Here we are at the main event and I really haven’t a whole lot to say. Lyoto is king of the hill and ‘Shogun’ is only taking the first shot because TUF 10 stole both contenders. A lot of questions will be answered after this event, such as: win or lose, where does Shogun stand in the lightheavyweight world; What is the selling power of Lyoto Machida in terms of PPV buys; Is the dragon as untouchable as some think.

Truth be told, It took me a long time to come round to the Machida hype, I thought people were blowing their horns too soon, he’d fought no one relevant in the division and he’d done so with a slow and boring pace that I knew for sure would have him ripped in two against his first real opponent. However, after tearing through Tito ortiz and Thiago Silva I was forced to think differently. Lyotos found a way to adapt a Karate base to a MMA style and that’s not something that’s ever been successful at this level, expect a thousand copycat cases to fail miserably over the next 2-3 years.

Shogun is a man whose had mixed success since coming into the UFC as the worlds #1 ranked lightheavy (mostly by Pride fanboys). He was slaughtered by gigantic lightheavyweight Forest Griffen and failed to put 40+ mark Coleman way until the last second, despite Coleman looking like he needed a Coroner. His last win, the only good fight of his UFC career, involved him knocking out a questionable Chuck Liddel and being pushed straight into the title picture. From a marketing point of view it makes sense, you can’t have the most famous fighter in MMA ‘retired’ and not capatalise on the victor, however, this will be no comeback story for Rua.

If Shogun fights dramatically unlike Shogun, he’s in with a slim chance. His best bet is to control distance and pick his shots to close into the clinch where he can most effectively utilise his striking skill, this involves avoiding any reap or sweep tactics from Machida. However, if the fight does find its way to the ground we have yet to see Machida be tested by someone with this high level of grappling and submission skills (fat BJ Penn in his wild rover years doesn’t count), it might be in Rua’s best interest to remember he once subbed Ricardo Arona and make BJJ his best friend again.

Lyoto’s approach is already known by everyone, that’s the beauty of having something that’s never been broken, you don’t have to fix it. Lyoto will use his wide stance and low guard to bait his opponent into over extending and constaantly attacking while he works out their range and timing and uses circular foot work to carry himself away from danger allowing him to get off with accurate power shots in the counter. If the fight goes to the ground or clinch it will be interesting to see what Machida does, I however, don’t see it ever coming that close.
Bottom line: Machida by spectacular knock out.

Despite some complaints, top to bottom it’s a pretty solid card with mostly contentious match ups, expect some post fight analysis from yours truly early next week and enjoy the event.

Any suggestions or corrections? email me at colmivers@gmail.com